Too early, too late
Someone once said, if you are too far ahead of the pack you're going to get slaughtered. Second movers may often succeed where first movers have laid the groundwork, tested the model, or proven the demand. On the other hand, if you are too far behind, your market may have already left with the pack. Both sides of the commercial real estate equation in this herding metaphor can be seen in the timing involved in two examples.
The Fort was a project that proposed a new-type of mixed-use involving recreation, entertainment, and retail. Ahead of its time(at least in this market), it was hard for many necessary parties involved to not look at the project with heavy skepticism since the model did not yet wholly exist. They could not touch it, taste or smell it. They had to believe what they could not immediately see. Execution played a part in the project's demise but timing may have be more crucial than any other element. Another group may still come along to complete the vision or replicate the idea in another market but only time will tell if it would have been a 'Field of Dreams' or just another 'Flop for the Bluff'. On the other side, Coke sees the "third space" importance of our society and Starbuck's dominance in the space as a game they want to play. The idea is so prevalent and proven that they can touch, taste and smell it...its just not Coke's flavor. Will their
late entry to the game work? Again, only time will tell.
The new "third places" or new commercial mixed-uses are out there in various versions with varying degrees of success. Adam's experience and interest is to act on these trends without going to the butcher's block. Want a smart RE investment that is cutting edge without bleeding or do you want to position your business in the prime place for the herd? Give Adam a call.
How we (can) do this
A famous movie director interviewed on Charlie Rose this week spoke of the successful mix of "business and art" that some in his industry understand. The successful person "does the work they love" by utilizing the "necessary" vehicles of the industry and capitalizing on their personal leverage.
The same philosophy can be applied in commercial real estate. Some opportunities can only come to fruition after leverage of an another "vehicle." The mix of creativity and sound finance necessary for success requires us to look at different options during different cycles in commercial real estate. One may need to utilize a multi-stage investment plan in order to sponsor a larger creative vision they "love" - be it another project, financial goal or lifestyle dream.
Looking at other "vehicles," the article in this months
Commercial Investment Real Estate magazine is a great overview of investment options for the non-hands-on investor.
What are your goals for art and business? Creating a new vision? Leveraging your existing vehicle? Or, just want to get your hands-off your current investment and move it into another vehicle? Adam can help facilitate the vision, analyze the leverage and identify the vehicle.
More signs (and eyes) on whats to come.
The
Target campus project in Brooklyn Park could be a tipping point for 610. It's also a good sign the area will see increased redevelopment. With a high volume of space currently available and the main street business district struggling for an identity, the surrounding activity could mean a great opportunity to sculpt a new direction for downtown Osseo. Or, it could mean further retail recession originally brought on by the mega shops of Maple Grove. Bottom line, more bodies(and dollars) will be hovering in the adjacent neighborhood. How can/should Osseo evolve to stay competitive?
A theme this week
Pay attention to the commonality of things that you are presented with and a theme may emerge.
A recent mixed use seminar hosted by the
MSCA had a speaker discussing the old main street or similar central "heart" of a community as the most critical element to making a new mixed use developments work.
"Adaptive use has gotten big," says a quote in an article, 'The Brave New World of Recycled Real Estate', in the latest
Fortune magazine.
My new Amazon "Plog" had a posting today from an author of a book I had purchased three years ago. It was Stone Cunningham, the author of The Restoration Economy. The book is a good overview of what Stone sees as the challenges and opportunities related to our natural and built environment.
What to make of this? It seems the more we try to look forward to find the right economic equation for real estate, the more we should look into the review mirror to find opportunities and answers. The adaptive use of old space and models of pre-car culture society seem to be emerging themes that are starting to get above the radar awareness.
The Restoration economy is a good read for anyone interested in these topics...It seems Adam commercial is.
Someone once said, if you are too far ahead of the pack you're going to get slaughtered. Second movers may often succeed where first movers have laid the groundwork, tested the model, or proven the demand. On the other hand, if you are too far behind, your market may have already left with the pack. Both sides of the commercial real estate equation in this herding metaphor can be seen in the timing involved in two examples. The Fort was a project that proposed a new-type of mixed-use involving recreation, entertainment, and retail. Ahead of its time(at least in this market), it was hard for many necessary parties involved to not look at the project with heavy skepticism since the model did not yet wholly exist. They could not touch it, taste or smell it. They had to believe what they could not immediately see. Execution played a part in the project's demise but timing may have be more crucial than any other element. Another group may still come along to complete the vision or replicate the idea in another market but only time will tell if it would have been a 'Field of Dreams' or just another 'Flop for the Bluff'. On the other side, Coke sees the "third space" importance of our society and Starbuck's dominance in the space as a game they want to play. The idea is so prevalent and proven that they can touch, taste and smell it...its just not Coke's flavor. Will their late entry to the game work? Again, only time will tell.
